Secret IMF Report Admits Greece’s Debt Is ‘Unsustainable’ Under Austerity Deal

UPDATE, 18 July:

A professor of economics and head of the School of Economics, Politics and History at Kingston University, London, explained in the pro-business publication Forbes that, under the extreme austerity deal the Eurogroup imposed, it “is simply impossible” for Greece to pay off its debts. He averred that the deal, which was drafted primarily by German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble, is “not an economic program but a punishment.”

The economist characterizes Schäuble as the “Trust Troll,” and says that it “punishes you with more austerity if the original dose of austerity fails to cause growth.”

ORIGINAL, 14 July:

A secret International Monetary Fund (IMF) report obtained by Reuters admits that Greece’s debt is “unsustainable” under the austerity deal imposed by the Troika—the committee that gave loans to crisis-stricken European governments, of which the IMF is a part, along with the European Commission (also known as the Eurogroup) and the European Central Bank.

The report says that Greece will need a far better deal than the one reached on 13 July, an agreement which, under pressure by Germany, orders harsh austerity measures and the privatization of €50 billion of state assets.

The IMF says that Greece will in fact need more debt relief than the Eurogroup even considered.

“The dramatic deterioration in debt sustainability points to the need for debt relief on a scale that would need to go well beyond what has been under consideration to date – and what has been proposed by the ESM [European Stability Mechanism bailout fund],” the organization explained.

In the report, the IMF indicated that the Eurogroup would need to give Greece a 30-year grace period on servicing all of its European debt.

“Unsustainable” Greek Debt at 200% of GDP

The study furthermore revealed that the closure of Greek banks and application of capital controls on 29 June was “extracting a heavy toll on the banking system and the economy, leading to a further significant deterioration in debt sustainability.”

Greek debt, according to the IMF study, will likely reach 200% of Greece’s gross domestic product (GDP) in the next two years.

By 2022, the IMF estimates the debt will still comprise 170% of Greek economic output.

Reuters writes that, in “the laconic technocratic language of IMF officialdom, the report noted that few countries had ever managed to sustain for several decades the primary budget surplus of 3.5% of GDP expected of Greece.”

That is to say, few countries have ever been able to meet the strict demands made on Greece.

The IMF forebodingly warns that the present deal “will bring about an unsustainable debt dynamic for the next several decades.”

Knowingly Subjecting Greece to Further Crisis

Reuters also indicates that this report was given to Eurozone finance ministers three days before the final deal was made; yet the European leaders ignored the IMF’s warning, imposing conditions on Greece that they know are unsustainable.

In other words, the Troika is wittingly leading Greece down a path to further crisis, and knowingly subjecting the Greek people to further suffering.

Over a quarter of the Greek population is unemployed. Over half of the youth is unemployed.

In 2013, unemployment in Greece reached a record high, with 27% of the overall population and 65% of job-seekers aged 15 to 24 jobless.

Moreover, unemployment remains chronic. 73% of unemployed Greeks have been out of a job for at least a year.

In just the several years since the economic crisis began, Greek economic output diminished by one-fourth.

Although corporate media myths often portray debt-ridden Greeks as “lazy” and ungrateful, OECD data shows that Greeks in fact work the longest hours in Europe, and the third-most hours out of the 34 OECD countries.

The deal imposed on Greece by the Troika, meanwhile, mandates that stores remain open on all days of the week, including Sunday, and calls for Greeks to work even more hours.